Sticking the Soft Landing

Jul 31, 2024

A successful transition to steady economic growth, without a resurgence of inflation, could drive broad stock gains. But risks around AI, growth and monetary policy still threaten that scenario.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Investors are beginning to question the return on tech companies’ AI investments, with uncertainty hitting semiconductor stocks hard.
  • As hopes for momentum from China fade, global growth may not offset a U.S. slowdown, and that could weigh on corporate profits.
  • The Fed’s expected rate cuts may not be enough to stimulate the more rate-sensitive parts of the U.S. economy and markets.
  • Given such risks, investors should consider exposure to large-cap quality cyclical stocks, as well as Japan, gold, hedge funds and investment-grade credit.

It’s been just over a year since the U.S. Federal Reserve last raised interest rates. For most of that time, the question of when the U.S. central bank would begin cutting rates has weighed on many investors, who are hoping that cuts would signal a positive outlook that might support stock valuations.

 

Earlier this month, indications that inflation is cooling assured investors that rate cuts are around the corner. This sparked a massive shift of money from the so-called Magnificent 7 tech stocks to other areas of the market poised to benefit from lower rates and slower, but solid, growth.

 

If an economic “soft landing” comes to pass, as Morgan’s Global Investment Committee expects, it could continue to drive broader equity gains. But it’s still possible, though less likely, that the economy could either falter or rebound alongside inflation. That means investors still need to position their portfolios for a range of scenarios – and also to consider risks related to three questions that may have an outsized impact on markets.

Q
When will generative AI live up to the hype?
A

That remains unclear. The Magnificent 7 stocks’ valuations remain historically stretched, while the hype around generative AI and optimistic earnings expectations are reminiscent of past tech bubbles. These companies have been fiercely competing in their AI spending—but until recently, questions about the return on these investments and how long they’ll take to become profitable have been purely hypothetical. Investors are now asking such questions more seriously, yet answers so far have been vague, at best. This uncertainty has hit semiconductor stocks hard, but even with their recent pullback, the category’s trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is about 43 versus the historical 25.

Q
Will global growth offset U.S. economic slowing?
A

That isn’t certain. Granted, rate cuts by other central banks ahead of the Fed might lift select economies in Europe and emerging markets. However, investors’ hopes that China would drive much of the momentum are fading following the recent meeting of China’s leaders, where policymakers seemed flummoxed over how to stimulate consumption. Global bond yields have fallen while industrial metal prices are down, throwing cold water on the idea that global growth will offset a U.S. slowdown and help sustain corporate earnings from here through 2025.

Q
How fast and deep will Fed rate cuts be?
A

We expect rate cuts to be slow and shallow, befitting an economy that is cooling but not falling into a recession. However, we are skeptical that such cuts will be enough to stimulate the more rate-sensitive parts of the economy, such as low-income consumers, commercial real estate, regional banks and housing. Also, if the Fed cuts rates to 3%-3.5%, as we expect, history suggests it would only support stock multiples of about 16-18, which would likely disappoint bullish investors, given that the S&P 500’s trailing P/E ratio has risen as high as 27.5 since the Fed last raised rates. (For those who follow currency dynamics, U.S. rate cuts, alongside potential rate hikes in Japan, would also likely squeeze a popular “carry trade” in which speculators borrow in a weaker yen and invest the proceeds in U.S. assets.)

Investing Implications

Given our expectations that the Fed will cut rates to no lower than 3% and nominal growth will remain under 4%, we see an environment that is likely to reward companies with excellent management, realistic earnings forecasts and undemanding valuation multiples.

 

Investors should consider following the recent shift into large-capitalization quality cyclical stocks. We favor financials, energy, industrials, aerospace and defense, and select power generation and grid infrastructure names, as well as residential real estate investment trusts (REITs).

 

The market’s recent rotation has also benefited small-cap stocks, but we are not convinced those gains are sustainable.

 

We continue to recommend increased exposure to Japan, gold, hedge funds and investment-grade credit in a holistic portfolio.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from July 29, 2024, “Revisiting Risk Premiums.” Ask your Morgan Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report.

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